The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is presenting one more fight card prior to the Thanksgiving break. Despite the lineup not appearing as substantial as UFC 295, the variety on offer is definitely plentiful. A key feature of this event is the vast number of betting lines, which have analysts and community members puzzled. This edition of Prime Picks for UFC Fight Night 232 aims to leverage this with a pair of potential upsets involving fighters who have a considerably higher chance of winning than what the sportsbooks are suggesting.
Paul Craig is considered a notable one to win within the distance. His line for the main slot seems somewhat flawed against Brendan Allen, a skilled middleweight with only a few minor setbacks in the promotion. Although Allen has demonstrated reasons why he is a favorite among bettors, Allen’s weak spot is his tendency to engage in reckless slugfests where he often comes back under fire. Even though as a pure striker, Allen may appear superior, Craig exhibits a significant amount of firepower. It is too tantalizing to overlook a potential upset given Craig’s line for a stoppage as high as it is.
Ruling out Craig would always prove to be a mistake. Despite being 35, he still has a significant amount of zeal left and can recover from damage to clinch victory from an inkling of defeat. He has a potential threat whenever the fight gets onto the mat, he tries a sweep, or he uses his venomous offensive guard. Allen’s 82% finish rate seems ultra-impressive, his club-and-sub approach is what he prefers, with a rear-naked choke grip that seems impossible to break. Yet Craig may bring a kind of submission expertise that can counteract Allen’s preparations. Craig’s potential and his capability to end the bout instantly is a significant plus-money play that cannot be overlooked.
Other fights that could be the underdog’s haven are the ones between Craig-Allen and Machado-Michael Parkin, with names like Jordan Leavitt, Luana Pinheiro, and Joanderson Brito standing out as well. The fight between relatively inexperienced heavyweights, Parkin, and Machado, with knockout rates of 86% and 75% respectively, could be able to lean in favor of the underdog. Although both fighters don’t usually knock out opponents with one blow, Machado is a much more robust contestant who pushes back and does not crumble at the first sign of adversity. If Machado does not succumb to the heavier Parkin, he has the skills to carry off a severe upset and eliminate the victory from his opponent’s grasp.