The Apex will once again be our venue as the UFC puts on an all-Eurasian showdown in the main event of “UFC Vegas 79.” Azerbaijan’s Rafael Fiziev is taking on Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot in a classic striker-versus-grappler bout and will be a turning point in the career of the winner. In today’s Beforemath column, we aim to break the fight down in an analytical sense and answer some key questions. Can Fiziev’s 90% takedown defense hold up to the chain wrestling of Gamrot? Will Gamrot be able to even box into clinch situations to get to said chain wrestling? Let’s find out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyz
Gamrot: Persistence is key
Like Fiziev, Gamrot was given an opportunity to make the leap against the elite of the lightweight division. He took on Beneil Dariush and was denied any sort of takedown. His rise to the fight was quick and he bounced back after the loss well against the long-limbed Jalin Turner in his last fight. For Gamrot, the takedown is the entirety of the fight. If he can get you down, the fight is going to be a long night unless your name is Arman Tsarukyan. Against Dariush, Gamrot was able to get Dariush down four times on the night. The caveat is those were achieved on 19 attempts. Dariush denied the majority of the attempts on the night. If Gamrot cannot get to the ground, Fiziev will eat him alive on the feet.
Gamrot is all about chain wrestling. It sets him apart from the rest of the grapplers in the UFC, with very few exceptions. It all starts at the shot. Shown above, a double leg takedown entry is something Gamrot does often. From here, he either completes the takedown or looks for something else in the scramble. With Fiziev having a 90% takedown defense, the original shot for Gamrot will not be where the takedown stops for the majority of the fight. Scrambles and transitions will be major factors for Gamrot.
Fiziev: The skills to win
After his loss to Justin Gaethje, Fiziev was put to the back of the lightweight line. His 90% takedown defense still looms heavy over this fight, however. Fiziev is notoriously hard to take down and that’s good news for him against a fighter like Gamrot. If you can deny Gamrot the takedown, he’s quite one dimensional on the feet. He likes to shoot for doubles and he likes to grab the leg on the overhand right. If Fiziev can keep his distance and mind the right, he is in store for a highlight night, perhaps even a finish. Fiziev will be able to do what he does on the feet only if he can keep Gamrot away. For this he will need to work the body and deny shots to have Gamrot huffing and puffing as the fight goes on. The burden lies on Fiziev to keep him away. The good news for “Ataman” is that he possesses all the tools to do so.
The push kick, as seen in the animation above, has been all the rage against an advancing opponent recently. It’s a strike to the body (check by cardio), it’s a long weapon and likely won’t be countered by a fighter like Gamrot (check by safety and distance), and it keeps an advancing opponent away (check by distance management). Fiziev does use the push kick, but I would expect to see it a bit more from him at UFC Vegas 79. If he can do this quick and snappy, it will wear Gamrot down massively and have Fiziev in the driver’s seat, but Gamrot is going to keep coming and there’s a chance he gets into a clinch. So what to do then?
This fight is truly simple: if it stays on the feet, Fiziev should win. If it goes to the ground, bet the house on Gamrot. Styles make fights and these types of fights are what MMA and the UFC built its name on. Which style works best? We’ve moved on past that as a sport for the most part and being well-rounded is almost always required unless you’re an uber-specialist. These two are simply specialists. A stadium muay thai fighter against an ADCC grappler: What more could you ask for?