The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas with a lineup featuring a mix of surging and skidding competitors. Five different combatants will be coming into this card on three-fight losing streaks, with 10 fighters having dropped at least their last bout. Despite this reality, three of the 11 bouts see a betting favorite above -250, making this event ripe for potential upsets. In this UFC Fight Night 228 edition of Prime Picks, let’s focus on four underdogs worth scoping out: an unheralded lightweight contender, a featherweight who packs a wallop, a stone wall of a bantamweight, and a hefty heavyweight who can put on quite a pace.
Mateusz Gamrot (+130)
If this fight was scheduled for three rounds, the pick might be different. However, with an extra 10 minutes to operate in the cage, the underdog Gamrot is the more valuable option of the two. It is not so simple to analyze this as a striker-versus-grappler affair. Gamrot can more than handle himself on the feet, while Kyrgyzstan’s Rafael Fiziev is no fish out of water when it comes to wrestling. “Gamer” is the more well-rounded of the two, with a substantially more aggressive approach when it comes to takedowns and ground control. Additionally, he is more defensively sound from a statistical perspective, which makes him the top play in the smaller cage.
Gamrot’s striking defense is impressive. Although he has been dropped in three straight fights, the 32-year-old’s recoverability has been on point, allowing him not only to get back up but also to come back strong. His own blows pack a punch, and he can target them effectively and efficiently. Above all, his conditioning is exceptional, as he can shoot in for a dozen takedowns or more without gassing out.
Dan Ige (+172)
When a fighter suffers their first loss as a professional, several things can change: their confidence, mentality, and skills. In December, Bryce Mitchell ran into an obstacle he could not simply take down and strangle. Ilia Topuria hit him with hammers, bloodied him up, and ultimately manhandled Mitchell before forcing him to surrender to an odd-angled kata gatame. Thankfully for “Thug Nasty,” Ige is not the type to wrangle him in such a fashion. However, Ige does have several other weapons in his arsenal, including underrated fire in his fists, to make this an extremely competitive fight. No one has made Ige say “Matte” yet, and Mitchell does not appear to be the one who will do it.
Miles Johns (+150)
In a battle between former Legacy Fighting Alliance bantamweight champions, the heavily favored Dan Argueta will try with all his might to drag Johns to the floor. Unfortunately for Argueta, the fire plug that is Johns makes it quite difficult for anyone to wrestle him. Cole Smith succeeded exactly one time as the lone man to take Johns down in six UFC walks. Since then, Johns has stonewalled those who have tried, while staying in their face and ready to slug it out. If “The Determined” has enough determination to ground Johns, he will need the wherewithal to keep him there and nullify his opponent. Johns’ get-up game and sneaky power can make Argueta pay for attempts, making him a prime candidate to win at plus money.
Jake Collier (+125)
The next heavyweight to take down Collier will be the first, as no big man has succeeded in putting the former 185er’s back on the canvas via wrestling. There is quite an asterisk next to that statistic, however, as no one has bothered trying to take Collier down in seven walks to the cage above 206 pounds. “The Prototype” will take on a willing grappler in Mohammad Usman, who maintains the type of smothering top control where it may only take one takedown to win the round. Belying his 265-pound frame, Collier is quite a nimble individual. The speed advantage should be vastly in Collier’s favor, and as long as he does not succumb to Usman’s ground game, he can pull off the win and end his rough stretch.